The SPX/TLT ratio shows a large divergence. The bottom window is the daily and next higher window is the SPX/TLT ratio. When both indexes are making higher highs (Shaded in green) the rally in SPX is expected to continue. When the SPX makes a higher high and SPX/TLT ratio makes a lower high a negative divergence forms and a bearish sign for the SPX (shaded in pink).
Turn your attention to the far-right window; notice that SPX/TLT ratio hit a new short-term low below last week low, where the SPX closed above last Friday’s close; showing that SPX/TLT ratio is much weaker than SPX suggesting at some point the SPX will start a pull back. There is a possibility last Friday’s high could be tested which may triggered a bearish setup. Neutral the SPX for now. The second window down from the top is the weekly SPX and next lower window is the weekly . It’s common for the SPX/VIX ratio to lead the SPX; when it doesn’t than a divergence is presented. We noted in shaded pink where the SPX made higher highs while the SPX/VIX ratio made lower highs. The last time this setup occurred came at the February highs (noted on chart above. Since this chart is on the weekly time frame the current divergence can last another week or so before a possible reaction may occur. There is possibility last week high in the SPX could be tested and that possible test could produce a setup. The high on the SPX last Friday came in at 6532.65.
We updated this chart from yesterday and bottom two indicators are both near +30 and remain in a strong position. Yesterday’s commentary still applies, “Momentum rules all indicators. Last week we showed momentum indicators on the cumulative advance decline and up volume on the week l and monthly time frame. The bottom window is the 18-day average of the Up down volume percent and next higher window is the GDX Advance/decline percent (both momentum indicators).
As long as both indicators remain above -10 the uptrend in GDX is in force (shaded in green). When both indicators are below -10, GDX is considered in a downtrend (Shaded in pink). Strong rallies in GDX occur when both indicators hold above +20; both indicators are above +30 right now. We do own gold stocks but we don’t have a long position in GDX as a good entry hasn’t be found. If we were long GDX at this point we don’t see a reason to get out.”