China’s technological catch-up is often discussed as a political risk. For investors, however, it is primarily a structural reality – and above all a timing problem. The crucial question is not whether China will catch up technologically, but who will benefit from it – and when. This is precisely where the supposedly simple tech trade fails.
Why the basic strategic thinking is right – but not enough
China is investing heavily in future technologies such as AI, semiconductor manufacturing, and data infrastructure. State-driven programs and targeted development investments are changing decades-old technological balances. But from an investor’s perspective, fundamental megatrends remain only an answer to “Why?”, but not to “When and how will money be made?”. This distinction is crucial for decisions, not for headlines.
ASML as a systemic bottleneck – not just a bet on Europe
is no ordinary European tech stock, but a systemic bottleneck for the entire semiconductor production industry worldwide. ASML’s lithography systems are a prerequisite for the manufacture of advanced chips – from AI models to logic and memory devices.
Current key figures demonstrate this structural importance:
- For the 2025 financial year, ASML reported total revenue of around EUR 32.7 billion and net profit of around EUR 9.6 billion; the fourth quarter contributed around EUR 9.7 billion in revenue with a gross margin above 52% and net income of EUR 2.8 billion.
- In the third quarter of 2025, ASML generated around EUR 7.5 billion in revenue with a profit of around EUR 2.1 billion; gross margin and order intake remained stable and in line with expectations.
- For 2026, management expects further growth in net revenue in the range of EUR 34-39 billion and stable margins.
These figures are solid – yet the market reaction to news often speaks of expectation versus reality, not structural value.
The US, Asia, and the interconnectedness of major technology stocks
The next fallacy in the tech narrative is the isolated view of individual markets. The reality is that global technology value creation is closely intertwined.
Below is a brief, up-to-date overview of the revenue development of leading technology companiesthat are systemically relevant in various roles:
- reported record-breaking revenues of around USD 57 billion for the third quarter of fiscal year 2025, an increase of around 62% over the previous year; The data center segment grew particularly strongly, reflecting the high demand for AI accelerators.
- achieved sales of around USD 7.7 billion in the second quarter of fiscal year 2025, also an annual increase of over 30%, with the data center and client segment contributing significantly.
- (Google) generated more than USD 100 billion in quarterly revenue for the first time in the third quarter of 2025, with annual growth of around 16% and profits in the region of USD 35 billion.
- significantly increased its revenue in the same period, for example to around USD 77.7 billion, supported by cloud and AI segments, and reported strong profit growth.
- reported revenue of around $59.9 billion in the fourth quarter of 2025 and around $201 billion for the full year, with robust cash flow despite high capital expenditure.
- Samsung Electronics achieved consolidated revenue of approximately 93.8 trillion won in the fourth quarter of 2025, the highest quarterly revenue in the company’s history, reflecting the breadth of the global semiconductor and memory segment.
These figures illustrate two things at once:
First, the sheer scale and economic power of technology value creation in 2025, and second, the differences in roles and business models – from pure end demand (Nvidia, AMD) to platform and cloud monetizers (Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta) to infrastructure and production machines such as Samsung.
These companies not only supply products, but they build infrastructures, value chains, and demand economies that have a global impact. At the same time, the figures show that enormous capital flows are active in this sector – but revenue alone does not explain where returns are generated. This part is only decided by timely allocation and structured market assessment.
Structure instead of opinion: the difference in results
Investors often react to headlines such as “China is catching up” or “AI boom accelerates.” But real performance is not driven by conviction, but by timing and structure:
- Fundamental superiority explains why a stock is relevant.
- Market phase and chart structure determine when it makes sense to enter the market.
This difference is particularly evident in ASML. After a strong upward movement, the stock has experienced correction phases that mark classic return opportunities as well as risks – depending on how you classify them.
And now a new decision must be made:
It is not opinion that decides here, but structure. The complete ASML forecast with scenario and timing can be accessed on the Liberty website.
Fundamental key figures and comparative data can also be used via tools such as InvestingPro, for example, to compare US, European, and Asian technology stocks. But data alone cannot replace a decision.
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