- Bitget Chief Analyst Ryan Lee said that investors are showing a “measured response” to the developments in the US-Iran affair.
- Bitcoin and the broader crypto market continue to price in oil’s risk premium amid the fragile geopolitical landscape.
Bitcoin (BTC) and cryptocurrencies continue to navigate the market with caution. Despite another commitment from the US and Iran that they will “stand down for now” following renewed hostilities over the past few days, investors seem to be growing tired of the lack of a definitive resolution on the matter.
Ryan Lee, Chief Analyst at Bitget Research, stated in a correspondence with Blockzeit that markets are showing “a measured response” to the renewed US-Iran tensions. Oil is once again reflecting geopolitical risk premiums, but the broader market positioning remains “relatively stable.”
Market Snapshot on Monday
Brent crude traded around $74.31 per barrel on Monday noon (UTC) due to supply concerns. It’s edging closer to its pre-Iran war price at roughly $70-$72 per barrel, but its trajectory continues to be shaky as it navigates choppy waters. Any escalation at this point or breakdown of the ongoing peace talks between the parties at the negotiating table could risk another wild spike in prices.
Meanwhile, gold eased slightly to approximately $4,068 per ounce as US equities posted modest gains. The 10-year Treasury yield lingered near 4.39%, while the US dollar held around 101.3 on the DXY. So far, the delicate geopolitical balance has prevented investors from broadly shifting toward defensive assets.
Along the way, Bitcoin traded near $59,800 while Ethereum (ETH) sat at $1,566. BTC and crypto market sentiment remained at an “Extreme Fear” level amid persistent net outflows from spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Roughly $1.79 billion left the BTC ETF market over the past week, with BlackRock’s IBIT accounting for $1.30 billion of the net outflows.
Futures open interest increased modestly to approximately $102.6 billion while funding rates were near neutral. Predominantly long liquidations amounting to $153.29 million out of the total $230.55 million in liquidations significantly suppressed trader leverage. Interestingly, the balanced derivatives positioning of investors indicates investors continue to hold exposure.
Lee said the market will continue to be driven by US Treasury yields, crypto ETF flows, and developments in the Middle East.
US and Iran Temporarily Cease Hostilities
Citing a Trump administration official, CNN reported that the US and Iran will temporarily cease their attacks following a firefight near the Strait of Hormuz. The ink has yet to fully dry on their recent Memorandum of Understanding (MoU), but Iran’s continued aggression against commercial vessels navigating the vital oil chokepoint led to the USA’s retaliatory strikes.
Many investors are clearly showing fatigue as the fragile truce has done so little to alleviate risk premiums in energy and digital asset markets. However, maritime expert Dimitris Maniatis, CEO of Marisks, is optimistic that the open diplomatic channels, despite the weekend hostilities between the US and Iran, will eventually lead to a long-lasting compromise.
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